With the talking almost over, the series is set to come down to skill, luck and the balance between the two
IFS, BUTS AND MAYBES
One day to go. Now there is nothing much left to add. After all those words spread across all those weeks, we are finally going to get to watch some cricket. What a blessed relief. There is only so much hype a man can take. And all the ex-pros, pundits and pressmen in the world can only tell you so much. At this point it is over to the players.
No doubt England have had the better build-up. Australia look to have only just settled on their best team, sending Steve Smith back to Sydney to join up with New South Wales. If Michael Clarke is fit, and reports suggest he is, then they are left with a toss-up between Peter Siddle and Doug Bollinger for the final spot in the side. England, of course, have known their XI for weeks now. What is that smooth run-in worth when the first ball is bowled? The traditional answer is "nothing at all", but in truth it is not so simple.
England's meticulous preparations have been designed to leave the players with no excuses for failing. Every conceivable angle has been covered, from the presence of the shadow performance squad in Australia to the decision to send the Test attack early to Brisbane to acclimatise, from the Probatter virtual bowling machine to the tests to see which fielders have the sweatiest palms and should therefore be kept away from the ball in the field, the idea is that nothing has been left to chance.
And chance is often what decides the Ashes. The series, and the careers of the players who contest it, can be shaped by the smallest things. Take Fred Tate. At Old Trafford in 1902 England were one match down with two to play. Tate was called into the England 12 against the wishes of the captain, Archie MacLaren. Tate normally fielded close to the wicket for Sussex, but, in the briefest lapse of concentration during the second innings, MacLaren left him on the square leg boundary for all of a single delivery. And of course Joe Darling hit the ball straight to him. Tate dropped it. If the chance had stuck Australia would have been 16 for four. As it was, Darling went on to make 37 out of 86 and Australia won by three runs. England won the next Test at the Oval. If Tate had held his catch they could have won the series and MacLaren would most likely have stayed on as captain.
Skip on 44 years to 1946. At the first Ashes Test in Brisbane, Australia won the toss and lost both their openers before they had 50 runs on the board. The next man in was Don Bradman. At that point he was, in the words of fellow player and former journalist RS 'Dick' Whitington, "the ghost of a once-great cricketer". Bradman had been suffering attacks of fibrositis, and had been told by his doctor that he should give up cricket. It took the encouragement of his wife to persuade him to play. On 28 he hit the ball to Jack Ikin in the gully. England appealed, but the umpire decided it was a bump ball.
"A fine bloody way to start a series," seethed England captain Walter Hammond when the over was ended, suggesting Bradman should have walked. Bradman made 187, Australia 645 and England were shot out twice for spit, both innings following heavy thunderstorms that soaked the wicket. If the umpire's finger had gone up, Australia would have been 74 for three and England would have got The Don. England's first innings would have come before the rains fell and Australia would likely have caught the sticky wicket in the third innings. And, they say, Bradman might even have retired, persuaded by his poor form that his doctor was right after all.
Old Trafford 1961. The series was tied 1-1 with two to play. England needed 256 in the fourth innings, and after Ted Dexter was out for 76 they were 150 for two. They needed 106 at a run a minute. Richie Benaud was bowling from around the wicket. In came Peter May. He tried to sweep his fourth delivery. He missed it, and was bowled around his legs for a duck. Brian Close would cop the blame for getting out caught at square leg later in the innings, but as Derek Lodge would later write, "a few runs from May would have settled the issue". England lost by 54 runs. The fifth Test was drawn and at the end of the series May retired from Test cricket.
There are shades of Tate too in Ashley Giles dropping Ricky Ponting off Matthew Hoggard at Adelaide the last time England were in Australia. Ponting was on 35 at the time. He went on to 142, meaning all the good work done in the first innings by Paul Collingwood and Kevin Pietersen came to nothing. England had specifically devised that plan to dismiss Ponting, placing Giles 10 metres in from the boundary rope at deep square leg for that exact catch. And he fluffed it. "Hey Giles, you've just dropped the Ashes, mate," shouted a member of the crowd. "I will spend the next 20 years worrying about it," wrote Giles at the time. Australian readers will have to excuse me if I spare myself the pain of going through what happened in the rest of that game, though whether Giles had held it or not England would surely still have lost the series, if not the match.
Ifs, buts and maybes. What was it Benaud said? "Captaincy is 90% luck and 10% skill, but don't try it without that 10%." The idea is that all the fastidious planning of recent weeks will mean England have reversed that ratio. Well, we are about to see if they are right.
MODEL BEHAVIOUR
"Have fun in San Francisco"
Innocent words those. But they have just cost the Wellington all-rounder Ili Tugaga $500, a six-week suspension and 40 hours of cricket-related community service. Last August the 20-year-old Tugaga had told his head coach Anthony Stuart that he needed compassionate leave to go back to his hometown to visit a sick relative. As he had a shoulder injury, the leave was granted. But one member of Wellington's management could not resist taking a quick peak at Tugaga's Facebook page, and was puzzled to find it full of messages like the one above. Perplexed, Stuart did a little probing and it turned out that Tugaga had actually flown to San Francisco to pursue a career as a professional male model. Oops. "It was just a one-off thing that I wanted to do. Cricket was always what I was going to come back to," insisted Tugaga, who says his modelling career is now "on the backburner".
This is an extract taken from The Spin, guardian.co.uk's weekly cricket email. You can sign up here.
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