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Five Gold Cup entries take their chance in today's Argento Chase but, despite a golden spell between 1995 and 2000 during which the race signposted three Gold Cup winners, 11 years have now passed since Looks Like Trouble, the last horse to run here before winning the big one at the Festival. Maybe this has plenty to do with the introduction of Newbury's AON Chase, which attracts horses of similar quality. Cheltenham executives were certainly not happy when Newbury announced their own Gold Cup trial, which has featured two recent Gold Cup winners in Kauto Star and Denman. The JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial, also today, was a shocking guide to the Festival race until Katchit completed the double in 2007, as the previous 16 winners to line up in the Triumph were beaten. Since Katchit, two of the three winners were then second in the Triumph, so, unlike the Argento, this trial is proving more effective these days.
Paul Jones is author of The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide
published by Weatherbys
Today's TV races, by Chris Cook
It is very easy to be suspicious of a horse such as Tidal Bay, who combines masses of talent with a disappointing strike rate. But there are worse outsiders for the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March than this 50-1 shot and those odds may be a distant memory if he proves capable of winning the Argento Chase at the same course.
Now 10 years old, Tidal Bay (2.30) has won four times at the home of jump racing, notably when beating an admittedly weak Arkle field at the 2008 Festival. A more significant victory in today's context may be the one he pulled off in the Cleeve Hurdle on this card last year, when he came five lengths clear of Time For Rupert, who would have lined up against him today but for a dirty scope on Thursday.
Being Tidal Bay, he has not managed to win again in the past 12 months, though he ran an extraordinary race to be second to Imperial Commander in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November. Held up out the back, he looked like the first beaten but stayed on stoutly from the second-last to be beaten just a length and a quarter.
The bare result may flatter him but he ran on past some good horses and, around this testing circuit, there is plenty of reason to hope that he may get there in time. Given that stamina now looks his long suit, it is surprising to remember that it was in doubt until his Cleeve success. Punchestowns won here over hurdles and ran two excellent races in defeat behind Big Buck's but was a major disappointment when tried over these fences in the RSA Chase, when he was the 2-1 favourite but was beaten 24 lengths. Perhaps he will be able to atone but, in the circumstances, short odds make no appeal.
Cheltenham 2.00 Noland, third in Tidal Bay's Arkle, is a fascinating contender but hardly well handicapped on his first run over obstacles for more than two years. Wishfull Thinking, by contrast, is just 4lb higher than the mark from which he ran in last year's Coral Cup, when he was close up and going well before falling at the second?last flight. He took another tumble on his fencing debut but will have learned plenty from his fine second to Reve De Sivola here last time.
Doncaster 2.45 This step up to an extended three miles should be just the thing for Rose Of The Moon, who kept on powerfully to be second behind Bobs Worth on his hurdles debut at Cheltenham over a half-mile shorter trip. Buck Mulligan, impressive at Wincanton last time, looks a real threat.
Cheltenham 3.05 The Challow Hurdle was run in thick fog and it seemed that Backspin seized the opportunity to murder his rivals, who were nowhere to be seen when he emerged on the run-in. The second and third have been easy winners since and it will be surprising if Backspin cannot �emulate Wichita Lineman, who won this for the same connections in 2007.
Doncaster 3.20 Blazing Bailey seemed to have lost the winning habit until pulling clear of a big field at Cheltenham on New Year's Day, but that was his fifth outing over fences and his first in a handicap. He has been raised 13lb but still hard to beat if in the same mood.
Cheltenham 3.35 Punters have often underestimated Organisateur, a 20-1 runner-up in the Lanzarote on his most recent start. Ian Popham left his challenge too late when the pair were held off by a short-head at Taunton before that, but those handicap efforts under big weights read well.
Horse sense
This week's work by Punchestowns (2.30), we are told, was his best for some time and he will be expected by Nicky Henderson's staff to sustain the yard's good form when lining up for the Argento Chase at Cheltenham. There is less confidence behind Tidal Bay, who won the Arkle there in 2008 but whose current appetite for jumping fences is doubted by at least one person in a position to form a view.
Henderson may be in for another good day, as Shakalakaboomboom (1.30) is thought to have improved again since his Taunton success, while Bobs Worth (3.05) is fancied for the tough-looking Grade Two novice hurdle. Connections have yet to decide whether he should be tried at the Festival. The primary aim for Spirit River is a confidence-boosting clear round in the Cleeve Hurdle after his two tumbles over fences. He will not be sent back over the bigger obstacles this season.
In the same race, Bensalem (3.35) is thought likely to go well. His trainer, Alan King, has had a tricky news week but there is confidence from the yard about the chances of his Iolith, a 14-1 shot for next month's Totesport Trophy.
There is a tip going around for the Irish raider Killyglen (3.20) in Doncaster's Sky Bet Chase, though Aimigayle is also interesting at big odds on this first run back after a year off with a tendon problem. Connections would rather have had a prep run over hurdles but the mare is said to be fit enough to do herself justice.
Dark Shadow (3.55), from Henderson's yard, makes his racecourse debut in the last and is said to be a nice bumper horse. Buaiteoir (1.25) is strongly fancied at Lingfield, while Jamie Spencer is said to be a significant booking for Timeteam (2.55).
Twice Over is described as looking "in top form" on the gallops as Henry Cecil prepares him for a second tilt at the Dubai World Cup at the end of March, for which he is 5-1 second-favourite.
Seen and heard
A winning formula is repeated as often as possible in the slightly superstitious world of horse racing and that is presumably the explanation for Moose Moran, fifth at Royal Ascot last year, making his hurdling debut at Ludlow on Monday. His owner, Raymond Tooth, is the owner of Punjabi, who jumped hurdles for the first time in the same, extremely low-profile race four years ago, the beginning of a career that peaked with victory in the Champion Hurdle of 2009.
The Newmarket trainer Amy Weaver so enjoyed her spin round Cheltenham in the charity Flat race at last year's Festival that she applied to take part once more in what is now known as the St Patrick's Day Derby. Alas, there were so many entrants that Weaver, having already had her turn, was turned down A great pity, as she had been offered the ride on Henry Cecil's Ajaan, a classy beast who was fifth in the Ebor. Now we must wait to see if Cecil, who will be Cheltenham's guest of honour on the day, can be persuaded to offer the mount elsewhere.
If Doncaster beats the frost to race today where the highlight is the Sky Bet Chase, it will be thanks to frantic efforts by staff in the darkness of the Yorkshire night. It takes five hours to lay frost covers around the course and yesterday's final race did not start until 4.10pm.
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2011/jan/29/talking-horses-29-january
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